Gambling

I have written elsewhere about my ability to consistently win money from the slot machines at The Woodbine Race Track .

In high-school mathematics classes we studied the weekly results of the Western Australian Lotteries Commission weekly draws; We calculated the Expected Rate of Return on a one-dollar (1963) lottery ticket. The lesson was "Don't Gamble".

Over the years I have not gambled, to the extent of paying $2 for an office raffle for a sports club, but not accepting the ticket – give it to somebody else.

That said, my life often presents a gamble that I can guarantee to win.

The most recent example is with Newfoundland Power – the billing agency for the supply of electrical energy to my home. Newfoundland Power puts out a monthly email titled "Take Charge", and the most recent issue tells me "Oct 09, 2025 - Nov 07, 2025 Electric 649 kWh Total Cost $99 May not match bill." My response is "I'll bet you next month's pension that your Nov-Dec prediction will not be accurate (providing that you express it accurate to two decimal places)" and the footnote refers to the term Pension "Yours or mine; your call."

Now when I write "pension" do I mean the current monthly payment or the amortized value or what? It doesn't matter!

Suppose that Newfoundland Power wants to bet/predict that my next bill will be $242.50; then I am betting several thousand dollars that my bill will NOT be $242.50. I can go further and bet that my next bill will not be between $230.00 and $260.00.

How can I be sure? Because I control the consumption of electrical energy in my home.

If the proposed figure is $242.50 and in the week of billing my use is well below $230 then I might lower my thermostats and thus win thousands of dollars. But if the proposed figure is $242.50 and in the week of billing my use is above $230 and below $260, then I will raise my thermostats and thus win thousands of dollars.

In the first case the cost to me is adding an extra shirt or sweater until meter-reading day; that I will do to win thousands of dollars. In the second case I will burn off and pay for extra electrical energy, increasing my bill by around thirty dollars, but for that investment I will win thousands of dollars.

I can’t lose, but Newfoundland Power will lose.

Guaranteed.

Never gamble unless you can be 100% certain of the outcome.

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